Bretton Woods III By Zoltan Pozsar

General observation: people in finance tend to think more highly of China, e.g. Ray Dalio, Charlie Munger and now Pozsar

As an equity analyst, I think I probably understand around 60% of the content. Some memorable points:

• The 2022 Russian supply shock is driven by the consumer, not the supplier
• Four prices of money
  • Par: price of different types of money, i.e. cash, deposits, money fund trade 1:1
  • Interest: price of future money, i.e. OIS spread
  • Exchange rate: price of foreign money
  • Price level: price of commodities and everything else
• Every crisis is about the core vs. periphery (U.S. Dollar vs. Asian Currencies, Prime vs. Subprime)
• In every crisis, someone has to provide a backstop to close the gap

No doubt the current crisis provides a golden opportunity for China to step in and promote Renminbi as a global currency. But will the PBoC be the ultimate savior? I am not so certain. I could be wrong.